A quick analysis on lka Covid19 data.. and it’s not looking good..

Sri Lanka’s 3rd wave started during 2021 April end. It looked like we had it under control around July but then the cases count began to rise drastically (Fig 1).

Fig 1 — Corona lka positive cases

If we look closely at the 3rd wave (Fig 2), a lockdown has been enforced from August 20th and looks like the cases count is settling down.

Fig 2— Positive cases in lka 3rd wave

But is this interpretation correct?

Daily PCR tests

Positive cases count is settling down but I was sceptical about that and wanted to check the number of PCR tests conducted every day.

Fig 3 — PCR test count

As you might have guessed, the daily PCR test count is also declining (Fig 4).

Fig 4 — PCR test count (Aug 15 — Aug 29)

Therefore, the only way to find the true impact is to check the PCR positive rate.

PCR Positive Rate

On Aug 29th PCR Positive rate is ~30% as opposed to 13% on Aug 1st. This is not a good sign.

Fig 5 — PCR Positive Rate

Then I checked the 90 days forecast of the PCR positive rate. It says the PCR positive rate will hit around 50% in 2021 December if we don’t implement any changes.

Fig 6 — PCR Positive rate forecast

50% PCR positive rate looks scary.. However, As of now, 7 million people (~32% of the population) have been fully vaccinated against Covid19 and it is expected to reach around 60% fully vaccinated population at around October end. So, Hopefully, the positive rate will settle down. If the country can afford to extend the lockdown, it’ll also help to reduce the spread.

What can we do to avoid the 50% PCR positive rate?

“Waiting for a better vaccine would be a potentially lethal mistake. Almost all existing vaccines drastically reduce the odds of hospitalisation or death due to Covid-19. Take whichever vaccine you can when it’s your turn”

The reason for this exponential increase in PCR positive rate can be Delta or some new variant but regardless, we have few variables that we can control to reduce the spread.

• Get vaccinated at your earliest.
• Do not go out unless it is an absolute necessity
• Always follow suggested Covid-19 health protocols at any cost.

Be responsible and stay safe! 😷

Data

The raw data was collected from the official Health promotion bureau of Sri Lanka.